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Assembly Elections 2022: The biggest flop faces & road ahead

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2022 Assembly Elections in 5 states (Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur) were no less interesting than the 2019 General Elections, and BJP once again passed with flying colors in 4 states. If BJP is joyous about its victory, opponents are reviewing and researching the reasons for their failure but there are faces in every party which proved themselves “The Bog Flop Show”. They could get space in media, they were hyped by their party and they were also quite popular among the public but ultimately they have swept away in the Hindutva cyclone of BJP. Let’s have a look at them-

Uttar Pradesh

  1. Keshav Prasad Maurya (BJP): Once a CM Chair claimant, hero of 2014 General Elections and Assembly Elections 2017 as UP BJP State President, lost to Dr. Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal (K). He has been vocal against CM Yogi Adityanath and their differences are no more a secret. He kept saying that the Chief Minister will be decided, till BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it official that “Aayega to Yogi Hi”.
    But after losing from Sirathu, Maurya doesn’t have many choices but to remain in BJP, tamed and domesticated. Now he will be bound to accept whatever role or responsibility the party offers to him.
  2. Swami Prasad Maurya (SP): Before criticizing Swami Prasad Maurya for his defeat, he must be given the credit for making the ‘mahaul’ for Samajwadi Party and Akhilesh Yadav in Eastern UP. The day he left Bhartiya Janta Party, BJP apparently seemed stumped and it was one up for SP. He undoubtedly benefitted the Samajwadi Party which can be seen in a few districts of eastern UP like Ambedkar Nagar, Azamgarh, Ghazipur where BJP couldn’t get a single seat.
    But now that he has lost his own assembly seat, he also is not left with many options but to remain in Samajwadi Party. He might go back to BJP, depending on how well he be received there but since Maurya has cleared that he will stay with Akhilesh Yadav and will prepare for 2024 General Elections, any speculations may not be of any use.
  3. Priyanka Gandhi (Congress): Yet another disappointment for Gandhi’s Family, Congress Party, and for the Congress sympathizers, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra shrieked her party from 7 Seats to 2 Seats and from 6.25% Votes to 2.33% Vote. But she is not alone to be blamed. She undoubtedly did a great job as she fought for the Dalits and Farmers, she reached to Hathras Rape Victim Family, Unnao Rape Victim Family, Lakhimpur Massacre Victims Family, she tried to bring more women in politics and gave the slogan ‘ladki hoon lad sakti hoon’ but apparently, people didn’t want the kind of politics which Priyanka Gandhi was trying to do.
    Born in Gandhi Family, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has no choice but to remain in Congress and keep working to revive her ancestors’ party. She might play a bigger role in National Politics but looking at the current situation of Congress, no miracle is hoped in the near future.
  4. Chandrashekhar Azad alias Ravan (Azad Samaj Party): An emerging face of Dalit Politics and Jatav community was also proved a big flop in UP Assembly Elections 2022. Known for his highhandedness, Ravan failed to ally with any large party and went to Gorakhpur and challenged Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath where he could hardly get 7640 Votes. He bargained with Akhilesh Yadav for alliance and tried to ally with Congress, he is now left alone and the clear shift of Dalit voters from Bahujan Samaj Party to BJP puts a question mark on Chandrashekhar Ravan’s future.
    Age is on Chandrashekhar Ravan’s side, so if he keeps working for Dalit, he may emerge as a Dalit face in UP Politics. To continue, he needs to join an established political where he could get wider resources and platforms to remain relevant in politics.
  5. Satish Chandra Mishra (BSP): In the shrinking BSP, Satish Chandra Mishra was left probably the only leader after many of BSP MLAs were sacked or left. A known lawyer and Mayawati’s confidante, Mishra tried well to become a Brahmin face of BSP but definitely couldn’t bring BSP even into the fray. His utility for Mayawati is higher than winning MLA Seats as he keeps Bahen Ji protected from coercive actions of the court in many of her disproportionate assets cases pending in courts.
    But he has plenty of options as a lawyer and as a politician too. He may continue with his lawyer career or join any other party where he will be welcomed for bringing even a little BSP Cadre and votes.

Watch Video:

Punjab

  1. Charanjit Singh ‘Channi’ (Congress): Once said to be a masterstroke of Congress, when Charanjit Singh ‘Channi’ replaced Capt. Amarinder Singh as Chief Minister brought hope for Congress that they could retain power in Punjab but he also flopped not only keeping Congress in power, but he also lost his own seat from both the constituencies, Chamkaur Sahib and Bhadaur.
    Channi doesn’t have much option of moving from Congress as the Aam Aadmi Party has the brute majority in Punjab and doesn’t practice BJP kind of politics of bringing opposition MLAs, even being in power. Shiromani Akali Dal has its own internal issues which they need the fix and there is no such stake of BJP. So Charanjit Singh Channi has to make peace with it and keep working with Congress and Navjot Singh Sidhu if he stays in Congress.

Uttarakhand

  1. Harish Rawat (Congress): The most credible face of Congress in Uttarakhand, Rawat also lost his own seat and Congress once again missed to come back to power. But to be fair to Harish Rawat, he was given the command in the later stage and was kept busy to resolve the Punjab Congress feud for a very long time. Keeping the tallest leader of a poll-bound state for a very long time was the blunder of Congress’s high command.
    Harish Rawat kept serving with Congress despite several disputes and dissatisfactions so there is a rare chance that he will leave Congress now and join any other party.
  2. Pushkar Singh Dhami (BJP): A naive brought in the slog overs could not leave any imprint and he lost his own seat from Khatima Assembly Constituency but BJP managed to retain the power in the name of Narendra Modi.
    Pushkar Singh has a long career to go and he is expected to become the chief minister once again to have a bright future ahead.
  3. Col. Ajay Singh Kothiyal (AAP): A decorated retired army man, Aam Aadmi Party had declared Colonel Kothiyal its Chief Minister face but could not do much for the party and lost his own seat from Gangotri Assembly Constituency.
    Col. Kothiyal is just 53 and with the emerging AAP, he may sail fine in the future. Since AAP now has the Government in 2 States, Delhi and Punjab, sooner or later he may also flourish with the party.

Watch Video:

 

Goa

  1. Prashant Kishore alias PK (TMC): The only flop face of the Goa Assembly Elections was poll strategist Prashant Kishore who successfully help Mamta Banerjee win West Bengal Assembly Elections. After winning in West Bengal, he went to Goa and plucked a few faces from Congress like Luizinho Faleiro but could not do any miracles in Goa. On the contrary, TMC had to pay by damaging its relationship with Congress and other allies of UPA. Whatever rosy picture PK had shown to Mamta Didi, she is back to square one and still trying to become a national face.
    Prashant Kishore is still struggling for his future and he keeps emerging in the media now and then by making catchy statements. He had also tried to join Congress but there also he could get a role of his choice.

Read also:

Giveaways & Elections: Short-termism to the Fore

The Next Greatest Emergency: All hands on the deck

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Grave challenges ahead for BJP if it loses UP Elections 2022

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No wonder Uttar Pradesh is said to be the “Road to Prime Minister’s Chair” as the most populous state of India has 80 Loksabha Seats 403 Assembly Seat and winning or losing this giant has a lot more meaning than any other state in India. 

As UP Assembly Elections 2022 are in culminating on 7th of March and so far the news for BJP has not been good, rather there is an apparent edge to Samajwadi Party in the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav.

2 ladies are also grabbing their bite as Congress in the leadership of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati are also seem to perform better than hoped. At least, they are no good news for BJP.

Now if BJP loses UP Assembly Polls, there are going to be cascading effects for BJP, and let’s have a look at them-

1- Question mark on Hindutva Politics

Let’s go to the memory lane when after winning the 2017 Assembly Elections with a thumping majority, BJP tried to make Manoj Sinha (now the Lt. Governor of Jammu & Kashmir UT) but it is said that Yogi Adityanath put his foot down and snatched the CM Chair from Sinha. 

There was no problem for BJP Leadership as Yogi Adityanath suited them to pursue their Hindutva agenda as a saffron-wearing seer Yogi Adityanath carried an image of hardcore rightwing politics and a descendent of Mahant Avaidyanath, who was one of the most instrumental leaders in Ayodhya Ram Mandir Movement.

For the last 5 years, time and again Yogi Adityanath proved his utility and remained the biggest mascot of Hindutwa. He used to go to other State Assembly Elections and as usual, he delivered speeches he is known for. Amusingly, he was sent to Kerala Elections where there is no such politics is praised. However, BJP’s narrative proved to be disastrous for them.

So, if BJP loses UP Polls 2022, there will be a big question mark on Yogi’s style of politics which is limited to 80% vs 20%, Thoko (Encounter) Policing and demolishing houses by Bulldozers as he never focussed on real issues like employment, stray cattle, and infrastructure. Taking inspirations from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he also organized large-scale events like Investor Summit and Defence Expo which yielded nothing, and taxpayers’ money was wasted like anything.

Also read:
UP Elections 2022: 11 Reasons why Akhilesh Yadav is ahead of BJP | Watch Video
UP Assembly Elections 2022: Where is it going after 2 Phases of polling?

2- Tough days ahead for Narendra Modi

Elections are fought on perceptions and there is a general perception across the country that if Yogi Adityanath is going in 2022, Narendra Modi is also not coming back to power in 2024. This is going to be the biggest challenge for BJP to save itself from this perception. 

Narendra Modi, who once used to have remedies for every illness, never lived up to the people’s exceptions. Now, he doesn’t talk about some of his most shouted issues like Black Money, Corruption, China, etc. He could not make a single start which is his own brainchild or implemented successfully and the public at large are benefitted. 

He just remained the old schemes of the UPA Government (some with the malign intension) and one thing which he did from his own idea was Demonetisation which proved to be disastrous for the people of India. The economy almost collapsed and businesses like real estate are yet to recover from this ‘masterstroke’ of Narendra Modi.

Implementing GST with 4 slabs in one stroke was another classic example of Narendra Modi’s bad governance and there are numerous such actions of him, some known to common people, some not. 

As of today, people don’t seem to be angry with Narendra Modi but they are sitting on the verge of getting angry. People have lost their jobs due to mishandling of Indian Economy, people have lost lives, their kins due to Covid Mismanagement so there are enough reasons when people can start thinking that enough is enough, let’s stop talking about Ram Mandir & Pakistan and start talking about jobs!

So, UP Assembly Polls are going to be the most crucial juncture for Narendra Modi as if BJP loses 2022 UP Elections, this can wake people up and start asking for jobs.

3- Presidential and & Vice-Presidential Elections

Another challenge that is BJP is going to face is the Presidential and & Vice-Presidential Elections which are due in July and August 2022, respectively. Looking at the current numbers of MPs, MLAs, and MLCs in states, BJP will be struggling to win these elections if they lose UP Elections 2022. The UP loss will certainly affect the fence-sitting parties who had supported NDA in Presidential and & Vice-Presidential Elections last time but if BJP loses UP Elections and the mood of the nation changes against BJP, it will be hard to anoint a President and Vice President of BJP’s choice.

As data suggests, if BJP comes below 150 in UP, the President will be elected from the opposition side and this will be a big blow to BJP. To understand the arithmetic of Presidential Elections, Watch this episode of What Does This Data Say-

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Ukraine-Russia War: Did Putin make a tactical mistake?

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It is the 7th Day since Russia invaded Ukraine but the way Ukraine fought against Russia in the first week of the war was contrary to the expectations of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the situation is different from what Russian military officials had predicted.

However, this is just the beginning of the war, which can turn into a fierce battle. Putin will hope that Russia will capture Kyiv within a few days of the attack. They will be confident that Western countries will be divided out of fear and will accept their claim over Ukraine, which they consider to be part of Russia.

Russia’s economy has also been badly affected by this war. There are also concerns in Putin’s big ally China that increased anger in Western countries could also go against China, causing serious damage to the Chinese economy. He has distanced himself from this attack.

At the same time, NATO can be stronger and both Finland and Sweden can join NATO for their own security. Putin waged this war so that Ukraine does not become a part of NATO. But, on the contrary, it may happen that NATO may get more member countries.

All these things can create problems for Vladimir Putin. All this is the result of Putin’s miscalculations. They trust very few advisors who just say yes to their yes. Now he will have to look at other options too.

Use of Lethal Weapons

Ukraine’s ambassador to the US claimed that the Russian military had already used thermobaric weapons. This weapon is also called a ‘vacuum bomb’, which absorbs the oxygen present in the atmosphere and makes a big explosion with a lot of energy.

Although ambassadors make tall claims at such times, videos of Russia’s thermobaric rocket launchers moving towards Ukraine have been seen.

There are also pictures that cluster bombs that have been used against civilians in Kharkiv. When these bombs explode, they take out small sharp pieces and injure the people around them.

They were banned in 2008 at an international convention but Russia did not sign it. He claimed that he would use cluster bombs in accordance with international humanitarian rules. But, the people of Kharkiv would have a different experience.

Vladimir Putin never hesitated to use dangerous weapons. He is believed to have approved the use of radioactive polonium to assassinate former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006.

It is also feared that he had given the Russian military intelligence agency permission to kill another former spy, Sergei Skripal, in 2018 in Salisbury, Britain, with the toxic nerve agent Novichok. A woman also died due to this nerve agent.

It does not appear that the danger to ordinary citizens bothers Putin. These killings were planned and the large-scale attacks in Ukraine are different. But, one thing is common that the lives of ordinary citizens do not matter before the larger interest of Russia.

Watch Third Eye with Anand Vardhan Singh

Nuclear Attack Threat

Is Putin ready to use nuclear weapons to conquer Ukraine? There may be such a possibility, but many experts say that the situation has not reached here yet.

It is true that Putin has clearly said that if anyone tries to interfere in Ukraine from outside, he will have to face more dire consequences than his history.

He has often said that if Russia is not included in the world, then why should the world continue to exist? But, history can repeat itself. When Stalin invaded Finland in 1939, he expected to lay down his arms within days. But, Finland retaliated strongly and the Russian army suffered heavy losses.

It was almost a year before the end of the Cold War. Finland lost its territory but remained an independent country. It is likely that the war in Ukraine will end in the same way.

It’s just the beginning. Ukraine has been standing still for six days, but that doesn’t mean it can hold Russia any longer.

But it is true that the first round of the war has not been one-sided. The response of Western countries has been stronger than people’s expectations, especially Putin’s.

Also read:
Russia-Ukraine War: Indian student Naveen shot dead

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